Embedded Files
Martina Calderisi
Ambiti di ricerca: logica e filosofia della scienza, epistemologia formale, psicologia cognitiva.
In particolare, mi occupo di:
dibattiti sulla razionalità del giudizio e della decisione in condizioni di rischio e incertezza;
bias cognitivi, per esempio framing effect, base-rate neglect, hindsight bias e outcome bias.
Pubblicazioni
Sistemi intelligenti, 2/2022, agosto
Probabilità pandemiche: tre pezzi non troppo facili
Vincenzo Crupi, Martina Calderisi, Stefania Pighin, Katya Tentori
With the Covid-19 pandemic, an unprecedented amount of scientific notions and data have reached the public arena on a global scale over a relatively short timeframe. We discuss this phenomenon as concerns probabilistic reasoning. As it turns out, the study of the logic and psychology of uncertain inference provides insight into puzzling developments in the understanding and management of the Covid-19 crisis. We illustrate the point with three examples: diagnostic tests and the base-rate fallacy; vaccine efficacy and its interpretation; and the Simpson paradox in real-world Covid-19 figures [maggiori informazioni]
Page updated
Report abuse